Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0717 PM CDT Thu Jul 02 2020 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN KANSAS INTO THE DAKOTAS THIS EVENING... ...SUMMARY... Several clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms will persist during the evening from Kansas northward into the Dakotas. Severe gusts are the primary severe hazard. ...KS northward into the Dakotas... Scattered thunderstorms ongoing this evening will likely persist for a couple more hours into the late evening with the more organized/cold pool-driven clusters. A moderately to very unstable airmass sampled by area 00z soundings (3700 J/kg MLCAPE at North Platte, NE) will support mainly organized multicells. Severe gusts (60-75 mph) are the primary hazard. The potential for severe gusts may linger late into the evening with weakening/collapsing convection owing in part to the 8 to 9 deg C/km 700-500mb lapse rates sampled from Bismarck, ND south to Dodge City, KS this evening. The lack of an appreciable southerly LLJ this evening into the overnight as convection moves east towards more influence of the mid-level ridge, suggests storms will likely weaken during the mid-late evening as the boundary layer cools. ...North TX... Two separate thunderstorm clusters over north TX will possibly pose a risk for severe gusts through 9pm CDT. However, the gradual expansion of convective outflow and overturned air will increasingly confine the localized severe risk. In the meantime, steep low-level lapse rates and evaporatively cooled downdrafts will support a threat for 60 mph gusts before this activity dissipates by mid evening. ..Smith.. 07/03/2020Read more
from SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_0100.html
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