SPC MD 1087

MD 1087 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 324... FOR CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA

Mesoscale Discussion 1087
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0736 PM CDT Thu Jul 02 2020

Areas affected...central North Dakota

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 324...

Valid 030036Z - 030230Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 324
continues.

SUMMARY...Isolated severe hail and wind remain possible across WW
324. However a gradual weakening trend is likely.

DISCUSSION...Radar and MRMS vertically integrated ice trends across
ND have shown a gradual weakening trend in ongoing convection over
the past hour. This is likely due to gradually increasing MLCIN (per
RAP mesoanalysis) and numerous cold pool/storm inflow interactions
(due to the storm motion and boundary geometry). These processes
should continue into the evening hours and should contribute to a
continued gradual decline in overall storm intensity. However, given
sufficient instability (1500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE) and effective bulk
shear (30-35 knots across the broader region), periodic cell
intensification will remain possible on the eastern edge of the
convection. If this occurs, severe hail and wind will be possible.

..Moore.. 07/03/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

LAT...LON   46040192 46880201 48090214 48770173 48980090 48999955
            48059978 47120018 46440068 46110087 46040192 

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