SPC MD 1075

MD 1075 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR WESTERN KS

Mesoscale Discussion 1075
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0632 PM CDT Wed Jul 01 2020

Areas affected...western KS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 012332Z - 020100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe gusts and hail are possible with
high-based supercells across western KS for a couple of hours this
evening.

DISCUSSION...Isolated supercells have developed early this evening
across western KS in an area of moist, easterly low level flow on
the back side of a surface low over northwest OK. Dewpoints in the
mid to upper 60s are supporting MLCAPE values between 2000-4000 J/kg
amid effective shear around 25-35 kt. Long, straight hodographs are
indicated in model forecasts, as well as regional VWP data,
resulting in splitting cells, which has been evident over the past
30 minutes in radar data loops. Overall, forcing is expected to
remain weak across the area, but supercell kinematic and
thermodynamic profiles indicate organization of stronger updrafts.
As a result, isolated severe storms capable of strong downburst
winds (given steep low level lapse rates and weak low level shear)
and hail are possible for a couple of hours this evening. Storms
will drift generally eastward, but the severe threat should largely
remain confined to a small part of western KS near DDC and GCK.

..Leitman/Thompson.. 07/01/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   37880174 38410163 38780123 38840077 38580040 38210022
            37720028 37320034 37160045 37130104 37260149 37880174 

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