SPC MD 1102

MD 1102 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 328... FOR NORTHEAST SD

Mesoscale Discussion 1102
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0738 PM CDT Sat Jul 04 2020

Areas affected...northeast SD

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 328...

Valid 050038Z - 050145Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 328
continues.

SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and severe gusts are possible with a
thunderstorm cluster over northeast SD for the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...Radar imagery shows a southward-moving cluster of
thunderstorms north of Aberdeen as of 730pm CDT.  The 7pm CDT
observed sounding from Aberdeen shows a moist boundary layer (14.5
g/kg mean mixing ratio) and around 2800 J/kg MLCAPE.  Although flow
in the mid to high levels is modest, gradual veering of southerly
low-level flow to westerly in the mid levels, has contributed to
effective shear around 25 kt---marginally supportive for supercells.
Expecting a continued risk for severe hail/wind over the next few
hours with this cluster before weakening occurs in tandem with
gradual boundary layer stabilization.

..Smith.. 07/05/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...

LAT...LON   45869989 46059884 45589802 45159834 45219960 45869989 

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