SPC MD 1103

MD 1103 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 329... FOR EASTERN MT

Mesoscale Discussion 1103
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0750 PM CDT Sat Jul 04 2020

Areas affected...eastern MT

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 329...

Valid 050050Z - 050145Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 329
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe gusts (60-75 mph) and large hail are possible with
the stronger storms for the next several hours as they spread
northeast across eastern MT.

DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a cluster of thunderstorms over
north-central and southeast MT early this evening.   The 00z Glasgow
observed sounding showed very steep 0-3 km lapse rates ahead of the
north-central MT cluster, and the boundary layer at Glasgow is
likely representative of the areas over far eastern MT ahead of the
southeast MT cluster of storms.  Around 1400 J/kg MLCAPE was noted
on the sounding and 45 kt effective shear---supportive of organized
storm structures, including supercells and bowing segments.  As this
activity moves northeastward, large hail will probably accompany the
stronger cores and severe gusts will likely focus with the more
outflow-dominant linear modes this evening.

..Smith.. 07/05/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...

LAT...LON   48360865 48980730 48260558 46180436 45180481 45150581
            46700613 47390796 48360865 

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from SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1103.html