SPC MD 1148

MD 1148 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KS...EASTERN NE...WESTERN IA

Mesoscale Discussion 1148
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0839 PM CDT Wed Jul 08 2020

Areas affected...north-central and northeast KS...eastern
NE...western IA

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

Valid 090139Z - 090315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...A new severe thunderstorm watch will likely be needed by
10pm CDT for areas of KS and NE to the east of severe thunderstorm
watch #345.

DISCUSSION...Radar/satellite composite shows upscale growth of two
thunderstorm clusters occurring early this evening as a central
Great Plains LLJ intensifies.  KUEX VAD data shows the initial
uptick of 1-2km flow AGL during the past hour with further
strengthening likely through 11pm CDT.  The strengthening warm air
advection and the presence of a moist/unstable boundary layer
(around 15 g/kg lowest 100mb mean mixing ratio per the Omaha and
Topeka 7pm observed soundings), will favor additional thunderstorm
development through the evening.  A consolidation of the convective
clusters into a continuous squall line is expected over the next few
hours.  Severe gusts 60-80 mph are possible with the more intense
downdrafts/bowing segments in the squall line as propagates
southeast this evening.

..Smith/Hart.. 07/09/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...

LAT...LON   42719718 42789602 42339557 41329578 39559558 38669609
            38469740 38839942 39929920 42719718 

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from SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1148.html