SPC MD 1204

MD 1204 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 364... FOR GULF COAST

Mesoscale Discussion 1204
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0628 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2020

Areas affected...Gulf Coast

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 364...

Valid 122328Z - 130100Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 364
continues.

SUMMARY...A few damaging wind gusts will remain possible with the
thunderstorm complex as it moves offshore and out of WW364.

DISCUSSION...The cluster of thunderstorms across south Alabama,
Mississippi, and the Florida Panhandle is approaching the Gulf
Coast. A general weakening trend has been noted via decreasing radar
echo top heights over the last hour. This trend should continue
given the lack of strong forcing for ascent and the gradual decrease
in buoyancy as the storms continue toward the instability gradient.
Despite weakening, a few strong wind gusts will remain possible with
the complex as it moves toward the Gulf Coast and off shore within
the next hour or two. Redevelopment on the western edge of the
complex across southern Mississippi will likely pose the greatest
threat for strong wind gusts given more robust surface based
buoyancy of 2000-3000 J/kg. Thus, the severe threat remains across
WW364.

..Lyons/Hart.. 07/12/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON   31998846 31778681 31468591 30988580 30018579 29988612
            30188854 30328886 31648907 31998846 

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