SPC MD 1227

MD 1227 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 370... FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST IOWA

Mesoscale Discussion 1227
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2020

Areas affected...central and northeast Iowa

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 370...

Valid 150100Z - 150200Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 370
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe weather will remain possible across mostly southern
portions of WW370. The most likely corridor for damaging winds and
severe hail will be across central and northeastern Iowa.

DISCUSSION...As of 0030 UTC, a broken band of thunderstorms was
ongoing ahead of a cold front across portions of the Upper Midwest.
Damaging winds will remain a threat across the southern half of
WW370, where several severe storms were noted in the vicinity of Des
Moines. SPC mesoanalysis indicates moderate to strong buoyancy is
present across much of central Iowa with 2000-4000 J/kg of MLCAPE.
Effective shear is relatively weak, with 30-35 kt being indicated by
proximity RAP soundings. Storm motion parallel to the northeast to
southwest oriented outflow/cold front will continue to support
predominately linear storms with the threat of damaging wind gusts.
Occasional severe hail may develop with semi discrete updrafts but
storm interactions and mergers should limit this threat. Overall
convective intensity has trended downward over the last hour, and
this trend is expected to continue.

..Lyons/Edwards.. 07/15/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...DMX...

LAT...LON   43399141 43279115 42769110 42509111 41039259 41009372
            41409420 41939407 42669314 43179242 43399141 

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