SPC MD 1244

MD 1244 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 378... FOR WESTERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA

Mesoscale Discussion 1244
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0651 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2020

Areas affected...western New York and northern Pennsylvania

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 378...

Valid 162351Z - 170045Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 378
continues.

SUMMARY...The cluster of storms, including a few supercells, across
western New York State and northern Pennsylvania will pose a risk of
damaging wind gusts and a brief tornado through this evening.

DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing in the warm sector
of a weak surface low ahead of a low-amplitude shortwave trough
across northern Pennsylvania and western New York. Enhanced
southerly flow ahead of the low and trough will continue to support
scattered strong and occasionally severe convection for a few more
hours. The most likely corridor for severe weather will be along the
New York Pennsylvania border where a cluster of stronger storms,
including a few supercells, is forecast to track eastward. Low-level
shear remains favorable for mesocyclone development given 0-1km SRH
of 200-300 m2/s2 near the warm front. However, decreasing
instability near the warm front and the loss of diabatic heating
should support a general decrease in storm intensity toward sunset.
Until then, damaging wind gusts and a brief tornado or two will be
possible with these storms as they continue toward the eastern edge
of WW378.

..Lyons/Guyer.. 07/16/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

LAT...LON   41197990 43327845 43317677 40897847 40927877 40957953
            41197990 

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