Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2020 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Large hail and damaging winds will also be possible through the evening across west-central Nebraska. A lingering threat for hail and damaging wind gusts will persist for another hour or two across western New York and western Pennsylvania. ...01Z Outlook Update... The outlook has been updated based on latest convective trends. A limited severe risk continues across southwestern New York State and areas of western Pennsylvania, where a few storms may briefly acquire rotation and produce wind/hail and perhaps a tornado. Ref MCD 1244 for more details. Overall convective trends indicate continued weakening in tandem with loss of surface heating/instability. Overturning has also occurred southwestward from West Virginia into northeastern Arkansas, where severe probabilities were removed for this update. A limited risk of hail and damaging wind gusts continues across southern Missouri and northern Arkansas, where recent satellite imagery indicates redevelopment and objective analyses indicate a strongly unstable airmass in place. Additional redevelopment upstream is indicated by a few CAMs, although this scenario is uncertain. Any severe threat should be isolated, however, and weak shear should limit convective organization as well. Marginal (5%) probabilities for hail/wind remain in place for this scenario. So far, the severe threat in northern Minnesota has remained relatively isolated, though lift associated with 1) a surface trough migrating through the region and 2) a mid-level shortwave over southwestern Ontario should continue to support isolated convection through dark or slightly after. Given shear profiles (which are appreciable with respect to vertical shear), convection may remain organized and pose an isolated severe risk for the next couple of hours or so. A few CAMs remain optimistic in developing a cluster of storms in western Nebraska, and this may materialize given strong buoyancy and northeastward-moving convection out of northeastern Colorado that may encourage new updrafts along its leading edge. Marginal and Slight risk areas (and attendant probabilities) remain in place for this update. ..Cook.. 07/17/2020Read more
from SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_0100.html
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