Mesoscale Discussion 1341
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0202 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2020
Areas affected...northeast South Dakota and west-central Minnesota
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 260702Z - 260830Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Episodic, marginally severe wind gusts will continue to be
possible for the next couple of hours across far southeast North
Dakota, northeast South Dakota, and west-central Minnesota with the
strongest thunderstorms. More widespread severe potential remains
low and thus a severe thunderstorm watch is not expected.
DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms continue moving east across northeast
South Dakota and southeast North Dakota this morning and should
continue into west-central Minnesota. These thunderstorms are fed by
an axis of greater instability stretching from eastern South Dakota
north-northeast into west-central Minnesota. Here, most-unstable
CAPE values range from 2500-4000 J/kg, with effective deep-layer
shear on the order of 40 knots. Given this kinematic and
thermodynamic environment, episodic bouts of strong/gusty
thunderstorm winds will be possible with the strongest thunderstorm
cores. To this end, a recent RAWS site in Marshall County, SD, (in
the vicinity of one of these stronger thunderstorm cores) reported a
wind gust of 58 mph.
The overall ability for thunderstorms to produce severe wind gusts
should continue to wane with time this morning as the boundary layer
continues to decouple and surface stability increases. This,
combined with the limited number of thunderstorms, should limit the
overall severe potential such that a severe thunderstorm watch will
not be required.
..Marsh/Edwards.. 07/26/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...
LAT...LON 44959829 46209715 46599455 46099426 45239475 44749575
44599728 44959829
Read morefrom SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1341.html
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