SPC MD 1440

MD 1440 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHWEST INTO NORTH-CENTRAL NE

Mesoscale Discussion 1440
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0738 PM CDT Sun Aug 09 2020

Areas affected...Southwest into north-central NE

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 100038Z - 100215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...At least isolated thunderstorm development is possible
this evening. Any sustained storm would pose a threat of wind/hail,
though coverage of any severe threat remains highly uncertain.

DISCUSSION...At 0030Z, a thunderstorm has recently initiated in
Arthur County, Nebraska along a weak cold front. The environment in
this area is characterized by steep midlevel lapse rates and strong
buoyancy (MLCAPE of 2000-4000 kg based on 00Z LBF sounding and
recent mesoanalyses), but also some convective inhibition, which
will only increase with time for surface-based parcels. Given the
capping and lack of substantial large-scale ascent across the
region, thunderstorm coverage across this region may remain quite
isolated, though the favorable instability and effective shear of
25-35 kt will support a conditional threat of severe wind/hail with
any sustained cell. 

Coverage of storms may tend to increase later tonight, as the
primary synoptic cold front approaches the region, though any later
activity would likely tend to be somewhat elevated. While the
environment will remain conditionally favorable for much of the
evening, concerns about convective coverage make watch issuance
unlikely at this time.

..Dean/Dial.. 08/10/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...

LAT...LON   41470204 42040067 42529969 42739935 42949906 42649845
            42339783 41869818 41449875 41079937 41010018 40970087
            40860175 41100192 41470204 

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