SPC MD 1441

MD 1441 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHERN MN INTO FAR WESTERN WI

Mesoscale Discussion 1441
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0811 PM CDT Sun Aug 09 2020

Areas affected...A portion of southern MN into far western WI

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 100111Z - 100245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong storms are possible this evening, which
may pose some severe hail/wind threat. A greater coverage of storms
is possible later tonight.

DISCUSSION...At 01Z, deep convection is attempting to develop along
an effective warm front draped from southern MN into western WI.
Large-scale ascent is weak across the region, though an apparent
zone of weaker ascent which earlier generated some weak elevated
convection to the north may be aiding initiation along the boundary.
If surface-based convection can be sustained, MLCAPE of 1500-3000
J/kg and effective shear of 25-35 kt (noted on 00Z MPX sounding and
recent mesoanalyses) will support organized updrafts with a
conditional threat of severe hail and locally strong wind gusts. 

Confidence is rather low in the coverage of storms prior to 03Z,
though watch issuance is possible if trends support the potential
for multiple strong storms near the boundary. A greater coverage of
storms is possible later tonight as the primary cold front moves
into the region, which may pose some hail/wind risk as well, though
the timing of any later threat remains uncertain at this time.

..Dean/Dial.. 08/10/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...

LAT...LON   44919459 45129385 45209340 45239298 45159255 44949243
            44709245 44509261 44419301 44419342 44429383 44489416
            44569442 44639458 44919459 

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from SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1441.html