SPC MD 1442

MD 1442 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MICHIGAN PENINSULA

Mesoscale Discussion 1442
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1011 PM CDT Sun Aug 09 2020

Areas affected...Portions of the Upper Michigan Peninsula

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 100311Z - 100345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few damaging gusts or brief tornadoes may accompany the
stronger circulations embedded within a QLCS. The line is expected
to gradually weaken as it approaches a more stable air mass. Given
the brevity of the severe threat, a WW issuance is not currently
expected.

DISCUSSION...A well organized QLCS, with an embedded book-end vortex
at the northern portion of the line, and an embedded circulation
just north of the WI/MI border, continues to track eastward within a
modestly sheared/unstable airmass. The southern circulation has been
associated with a few TDSs, suggesting that a few tornadoes may have
already occurred. Given the modest instability and shear in place
across the central portions of Upper MI, along with the current
storm mode, a couple more brief tornadoes are possible in addition
to a few damaging gusts. Otherwise, the line is expected to move
into a more stable airmass downstream, where subsequent weakening is
expected. Given that the severe threat is expected to temper with
time, a WW issuance is not anticipated.

..Squitieri/Dial.. 08/10/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...APX...MQT...GRB...

LAT...LON   45988847 46888820 46768649 46768495 46178484 45668580
            45468706 45598804 45988847 

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