SPC MD 1443

MD 1443 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHEAST NE...SOUTHEAST SD...NORTHERN IA...SOUTHERN MN...WESTERN WI

Mesoscale Discussion 1443
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1059 PM CDT Sun Aug 09 2020

Areas affected...Northeast NE...Southeast SD...Northern
IA...Southern MN...Western WI

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 100359Z - 100630Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Storm coverage is expected to increase overnight as a cold
front moves into the region. Some severe wind/hail risk will
accompany these storms, though uncertainty remains regarding how
organized the threat will be. Watch issuance is possible for some
portion of this area.

DISCUSSION...At 0345Z, strong thunderstorms are ongoing in the Twin
Cities vicinity, where hail up to 2 inches in diameter was reported
earlier in Carver County. Another area of convection is slowly
intensifying across southeast SD, in the vicinity of a surface
boundary. As the primary cold front moves into the region overnight,
an increase in storm coverage is expected, with one or more clusters
potentially evolving with time. Steep lapse rates will support
moderate-to-strong elevated buoyancy, and effective shear of 25-35
kt will support some organized structures given the favorable
instability. 

Details regarding how convection will evolve overnight remain highly
uncertain. Storms will primarily be elevated given increasing
MLCINH, but strong elevated buoyancy will still favor intense
updrafts, with an initial hail risk. The magnitude of instability
may also favor one or more modestly organized clusters, which would
pose some damaging wind risk despite being somewhat elevated in
nature. Watch issuance is possible for some portion of this area
overnight if trends support a relatively long-lived cluster or MCS
which would pose a more organized severe risk.

..Dean/Dial.. 08/10/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...
LBF...

LAT...LON   45659133 45299052 44629019 43659027 42729201 42639234
            42299371 42029472 41629645 41599703 41619800 42269832
            42709862 43259801 43969654 44739497 45619309 45659133 

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from SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1443.html