SPC MD 1444

MD 1444 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHEAST MN...WESTERN WI

Mesoscale Discussion 1444
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

Areas affected...Southeast MN...western WI

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 100730Z - 100900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms continue to affect the MSP local
area.  Small area of concern and uncertainty of longevity continue
to weigh against watch issuance, but we continue to monitor.

DISCUSSION...A small cluster of intense thunderstorms has been
affecting the greater MSP region for several hours, producing
isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts.  These storms formed
along/ahead of a cold front moving into the region, but have
remained quite isolated in nature.  Larger-scale steering flow would
tend to move these storms into western WI, where the air mass is
slightly less unstable.  A more likely scenario is for storms to
slowly develop southeastward along instability gradient along the MS
River toward southwest WI, although time-of-day and poor CAM
performance decrease confidence how much longer the storms can
maintain severe intensity.

We continue to monitor storms for upscale growth or a more
widespread risk of severe storms through the overnight hours.

..Hart.. 08/10/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...

LAT...LON   44699423 45309384 45299235 44609078 43509052 43479171
            43759299 44079373 44699423 

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