Mesoscale Discussion 1445 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0319 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020 Areas affected...Southeast SD...Northeast NE...Northwest IA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 100819Z - 101015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are likely to increase in coverage early this morning, along with the risk of a few severe thunderstorms. Trends will be monitored for upscale growth and possible WW issuance. DISCUSSION...Multiple clusters of thunderstorms have developed in the past hour across southern SD and northeast NE. This area is ahead of an approaching shortwave trough, and in region of isentropic lift behind the cold front - mainly in the 2-4 km layer. Ample CAPE is indicated in forecast soundings over this region, along with steep midlevel lapse rates and sufficient deep-layer shear for convective organization. Isolated instances of hail are the primary threat for now. However, CAM solutions have suggested the potential for one or more of the clusters to grow upscale and become a bowing complex later this morning. If this trend begins to unfold, a WW may be needed to cover the downstream threat. ..Hart.. 08/10/2020 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...UNR... LAT...LON 43190137 43849774 43639521 42069610 42310073 43190137Read more
from SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1445.html
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