SPC MD 1527

MD 1527 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR WESTERN NEVADA

Mesoscale Discussion 1527
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0735 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2020

Areas affected...Western Nevada

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 190035Z - 190200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A few strong to severe storms are possible for the next 1
to 2 hours.

DISCUSSION...Several storms have developed in western Nevada over
the last 2 hours. While no severe reports have been observed, radar
imagery suggests strong enough updrafts to support damaging winds
from a few of these storms. SPC mesoanalysis seems to be
significantly underestimating instability in the region with MLCAPE
around 650 per 00Z REV RAOB. In addition, this sounding showed
around 30 kts of effective shear. This combination of instability
and shear should be sufficient for continued storm organization for
a few more hours before the boundary layer cools and storms weaken.
Damaging winds will be the primary threat with DCAPE of 1800 J/kg
and lapse rates of 9 C/km from the surface to 500mb on the 00Z REV
RAOB.

..Bentley/Edwards.. 08/19/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LKN...REV...

LAT...LON   38911959 39841978 40621979 41281921 41001841 39991794
            39171852 38801900 38911959 

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from SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1527.html