SPC MD 1528

MD 1528 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON

Mesoscale Discussion 1528
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0808 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2020

Areas affected...Portions of north central and northeast Oregon

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 190108Z - 190245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A couple of severe thunderstorms are possible this evening
and early overnight.

DISCUSSION...A plume of moisture around 700mb (observed on 00Z MFR
RAOB) has led to around 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE across much of eastern
Oregon according to SPC mesoanalysis. This elevated instability is
expected to increase through the evening as mid-level temperatures
start to cool ahead of a trough approaching the Pacific Northwest.
Forcing for ascent remains weak, but a few isolated storms (such as
the one in northern Crook County at 01Z) may persist through the
evening and into the early overnight hours. Moderate mid to upper
level flow around 50 kts (per MFR 00Z RAOB) provides ample
cloud-bearing layer shear for occasional supercell storm modes.
Overall, the weak instability and weak forcing for ascent will
likely limit the severe-weather threat, but a couple of stronger
storms are possible with a threat for some strong to severe wind
gusts.

..Bentley/Edwards.. 08/19/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOI...PDT...MFR...

LAT...LON   44142123 44922093 45642044 45931945 46171812 45551758
            44611794 43641937 43271995 43102060 43132085 43362118
            44142123 

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from SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1528.html