SPC MD 1545

MD 1545 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS

Mesoscale Discussion 1545
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0327 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2020

Areas affected...portions of central Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 220827Z - 221030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Sporadic strong gusts may accompany southward-progressing
thunderstorm clusters through early morning.

DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing early this morning
across parts of central Texas. This activity is associated with a
weak shortwave impulse near the Red River. This impulse should
continue migrating south/southeast through the morning hours, and
clusters of thunderstorms may persist across central Texas into the
daylight hours. 

While moderate near-surface inhibition exists, regional VWP data
shows a modest southerly low level jet around 25-30 kt over the
region. Considerable veering with height noted in 06z regional RAOBs
and current VWP data is contributing to 30-45 kt of effective shear
as well. Downstream dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s beneath
midlevel lapse rates around 7.5 C/km are resulting in MUCAPE values
around 1000-2000 J/kg. As a result, an loosely-organized storm
cluster should continue tracking southward the next several hours.
Some CAMs guidance suggests some upward development/cold-pool
induced forward-propagation is possible. Locally strong gusts could
accompany this activity as it encounters greater instability with
southward extent. Any more discrete cells within the larger cluster
could also produce hail to near 1-inch. Given the marginal nature of
the threat, and climatologically unfavorable timing for severe
convection, a watch is not expected, but trends will be monitored.

..Leitman/Thompson.. 08/22/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   30949983 31119974 31359919 31649856 31859826 31829780
            31539760 31379737 30919704 30279697 29819714 29449752
            29309883 29469957 29739986 30159989 30949983 

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