SPC MD 1670

MD 1670 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN MINNESOTA.

Mesoscale Discussion 1670
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0719 PM CDT Wed Sep 02 2020

Areas affected...Eastern North Dakota and western Minnesota.

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 030019Z - 030145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Severe wind gusts will be possible with fast moving
shallow convection along a cold front. A weather watch is unlikely
but conditions will be monitored.

DISCUSSION...As of 00z SPC mesoanalysis showed a 996 mb low
deepening across eastern North Dakota. A strong cold front is
sweeping to the southwest of the low triggering shallow frontal
convection. Strong background winds from a 70-80 kt mid-level jet
aloft will likely support strong downdrafts with the showers along
and behind the front. While little lightning has been observed and
instability is rather weak, (only 250-500 J/kg of MLCAPE available),
severe wind gusts will be possible through the next few hours. A
weather watch is unlikely owing to the sporadic threat and weaker
overall convection, but trends will be monitored.

..Lyons/Hart.. 09/03/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

LAT...LON   46780030 47530044 48249936 48739838 48769771 48519682
            47899633 47099613 46449720 46359815 46589963 46750008
            46780030 

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from SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1670.html