Mesoscale Discussion 1684 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0714 PM CDT Mon Sep 07 2020 Areas affected...Northern Missouri...Southern Iowa...Central IL Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 080014Z - 080215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop and spread east across northern Missouri/southern Iowa into central Illinois over the next few hours. Hail may be noted in the strongest cores. DISCUSSION...Weak mid-level height falls are spreading across the central Plains this evening ahead of a deeper trough that is digging south across the Rockies. While any appreciable mid-level disturbance is not forecast to eject across the mid MS Valley tonight, LLJ will increase across KS into northeast MO over the next few hours. Latest surface analysis suggests a well-defined surface front remains draped across central IL/northern MO and this boundary should move little through the night. However, sustained low-level warm advection will become increasingly favorable for elevated convection north of the wind shift. Forecast RAP soundings suggest LFCs will be between 750-800mb with ample buoyancy for robust updrafts. Latest satellite/radar imagery suggest scattered showers are now deepening along the MO/IA border and lightning will increase with this activity soon. Hail is the primary risk, some of which could exceed one inch. However, confidence is not high that hail sizes will warrant a severe thunderstorm watch. Will continue to monitor this region. ..Darrow/Edwards.. 09/08/2020 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX... LAT...LON 41209382 41179068 40289003 40239392 41209382Read more
from SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1684.html
No comments:
Post a Comment