DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0211 AM CDT SUN JUN 05 2016 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL OREGON... ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF MAINE... ...SUMMARY... ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL OR WIND IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS MAINE...AS WELL AS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL OREGON. ...SYNOPSIS... A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE NERN QUARTER OF THE CONUS WITH A LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AFFECTING NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY AND ANOTHER DROPPING SWD FROM THE UPPER MS INTO THE OH VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIST OVER QUEBEC WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWD TO JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WHERE THE REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MAY EXIST. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL FAVOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAINLY OVER MAINE. TO THE W...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST WILL BREAK DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE LATE IN THE DAY...WITH LOW PRESSURE ACROSS ERN WA/ORE BY AFTERNOON. WIND FIELDS WILL INCREASE ALOFT...AND ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR OVER CENTRAL OREGON. ...CENTRAL OREGON AND SURROUNDING AREAS... DAYTIME HEATING AND CONVERGENCE SHOULD PROVE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR NRN CA ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL OREGON BY 00Z TUESDAY AS FLOW ALOFT INCREASES. ALTHOUGH VARIOUS MODELS ARE OVERDONE WITH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND WIND. ...NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF MAINE AND POSSIBLY A BIT FARTHER SW ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AS SLY SFC WINDS BRING MOISTURE NWD AND COOLING ALOFT OCCURS WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SUBSTANTIAL WIND PROFILES...BOTH VEERING WITH HEIGHT AND WITH INCREASING SPEED SHEAR IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS RESULTING IN HODOGRAPHS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. GIVEN THE MARGINAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...THE MAIN THREAT WOULD APPEAR TO BE LARGE HAIL...ALTHOUGH A WEAK/BRIEF TORNADO COULD NOT BE RULED OUT. ...COASTAL CAROLINAS EARLY... THE REMNANTS OF A POSSIBLE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MAY BE LURKING JUST OFF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY MORNING. SOME MODELS INDICATE VERY STRONG VEERING WIND PROFILES COINCIDENT WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE...BUT PREDICTABILITY FOR THIS SCENARIO IS QUITE LOW THIS FAR OUT. THEREFORE...WILL DEFER A POSSIBLE SEVERE RISK AREA TO LATER OUTLOOKS. ..JEWELL.. 06/05/2016Read more
from SPC Forecast Products http://ift.tt/GAMjPN
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