SPC Jun 5, 2016 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0335 AM CDT SUN JUN 05 2016

VALID 081200Z - 131200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING A RATHER BENIGN PATTERN FOR
SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE LOWER 48. THE PATTERN WILL INITIALLY
FEATURE A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN STATES ALONG WITH A SFC
HIGH RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS AND WITH ONLY MEAGER MOISTURE
RETURN ACROSS THE PLAINS. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE FROM
THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS AS WELL...WITH ENHANCED UPPER FLOW OVER
THE NWRN STATES ALONG WITH ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY AND MINIMAL SEVERE
RISK. 

WITH TIME...THE ERN U.S. TROUGH WILL DEPART AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL EXPAND NWD TO ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE CNTRL AND ERN STATES BY THE
D7-D8 PERIOD. EPISODIC BOUTS OF MAINLY NOCTURNAL STORMS DRIVEN BY
WARM ADVECTION WITH A SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BE POSSIBLE D7-D8 FROM
NRN MN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...BUT PREDICTABILITY IS
CURRENTLY LOW FOR ANY OF THOSE SCENARIOS.

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