Saturday, August 6, 2016

SPC Aug 7, 2016 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Outlook Image
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0748 PM CDT SAT AUG 06 2016

VALID 070100Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NRN HIGH
PLAINS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SNR/CNTRL
HIGH PLAINS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER S-CNTRL VA AND N-CNTRL
NC...

...SUMMARY...
MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...MID-ATLANTIC...AND NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS.

...01Z UPDATE...
ONGOING TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR
ANOTHER FEW HOURS AND...WHILE SOME POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS EXISTS...THE LACK OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND RESULTING
LOW INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP ANY SVR POTENTIAL LOW.

TSTM CLUSTER ACROSS ERN CO APPEARS TO HAVE BECOME A BIT MORE
ORGANIZED WITH MORE FORWARD-PROPAGATION NOTED IN RECENT RADAR
IMAGERY. RECENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A LOW OVER SE CO WITH A
DIFFUSE SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SEWD INTO CNTRL OK. THE PRESENCE OF
THIS BOUNDARY AS WELL AS THE SELY SURFACE WINDS AND SLY LLJ SUGGESTS
PERSISTENCE OF THIS LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IS PROBABLE...WITH A
TREND TOWARDS A MORE SEWD STORM MOTION LIKELY. THE DOWNSTREAM SVR
POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED BY INCREASING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION BUT A
FEW ISOLATED STRONG GUSTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE.  A FEW STRONG WIND
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WHERE
TSTMS ARE ONGOING IN A DEEPLY MIXED ENVIRONMENT.

FARTHER E ACROSS S-CNTRL VA AND N-CNTRL NC...OUTFLOW-DOMINANT TSTM
CLUSTER MOVING ACROSS S-CNTRL VA WILL LIKELY CONTINUE SWD ACROSS THE
REGION. MOIST LOW-LEVELS AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT OCCASIONAL STRONG UPDRAFTS AND WATER-LOADING...RESULTING IN
A FEW DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS.

..MOSIER.. 08/07/2016

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from SPC Forecast Products http://ift.tt/rxAC6Z

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