MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1487
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0119 PM CDT SAT AUG 06 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN NY...NERN NJ...SRN NEW ENGLAND
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 061819Z - 062045Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR ISOLATED SVR-TSTM
POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE NOT LIKELY...THERE IS SOME
POSSIBILITY THAT A SVR TSTM WATCH COULD BE ISSUED.
DISCUSSION...A RECENT INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/INTENSITY HAS
BEEN NOTED FROM PARTS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY INTO SWRN NEW
ENGLAND AND VICINITY -- ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST. THE AIR MASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE
ACROSS THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO POCKETS OF AT LEAST FILTERED
SUNSHINE AMIDST DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THIS IS
SUPPORTING AROUND 750-1250 J/KG OF MLCAPE.
WITH ADDITIONAL DIURNAL SFC HEATING...CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO
INCREASE WHILE SPREADING EWD THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE 12Z
RAOBS AT ALB...OKX...AND CHH SAMPLED A BAND OF MODESTLY ENHANCED
MID-LEVEL FLOW -- AROUND 30-50 KT. RELATED ENHANCED DEEP SHEAR WILL
CONTINUE TO OVERLIE THE AREA INTO THE EVENING HOURS...SUPPORTING
LOCALLY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS. ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUSTS MAY
OCCUR.
HOWEVER...THE 12Z RAOBS ALSO SUGGEST THAT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
POOR ACROSS THE REGION. FURTHERMORE...WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW PER AREA
VWPS...AND THE LACK OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT...DETRACT CONFIDENCE IN
THE OVERALL SVR RISK. NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR
ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES TO OFFER SOME DMGG-WIND
RISK...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE
WW ISSUANCE.
..COHEN/HART.. 08/06/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...
LAT...LON 40607383 41017417 41967379 42677318 43307230 43507124
43207048 42036971 41237043 40687306 40607383
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