SPC MD 1488

MD 1488 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SRN/CNTRL/WRN MT...NRN WY...SERN ID

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1488
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0337 PM CDT SAT AUG 06 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN/CNTRL/WRN MT...NRN WY...SERN ID

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 062037Z - 062300Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A RISK FOR ISOLATED SVR TSTMS WILL EXIST ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NRN ROCKIES AND VICINITY EWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN MT AND NRN
WY. WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY.

DISCUSSION...FORCING FOR ASCENT ACCOMPANYING A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE
ORBITING THE ERN RIM OF A BROAD CYCLONE CENTERED JUST NW OF FAR NWRN
WA...COUPLED WITH DIURNALLY ENHANCED OROGRAPHIC CIRCULATIONS...ARE
FACILITATING AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN
ROCKIES EWD TOWARD THE BIG HORN MOUNTAINS AND VICINITY. THE MOST
VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THUS FAR HAS BEEN ACROSS THE CNTRL
ID MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT IN PARTS OF WRN MT.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD NEWD/EWD THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS
AMIDST MODESTLY ENHANCED MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. HOWEVER...BUOYANCY IS
QUITE MARGINAL OWING TO THE DEARTH OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.
REGARDLESS...THE PRESENCE OF 20-35 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR SUPPORTING
OCCASIONALLY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES...COMBINED WITH DEEP
INVERTED-VEE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ENCOURAGING DOWNDRAFT
ACCELERATIONS...MAY SUPPORT A FEW MARGINALLY SVR WIND GUSTS THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. THE LACK OF STRONGER BUOYANCY SHOULD MITIGATE THE
OVERALL SVR RISK.

..COHEN/HART.. 08/06/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX...PIH...MSO...

LAT...LON   42901276 43261388 43991411 45411389 47021308 47481128
            46940849 46170667 45000614 43500729 42901276 

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