SPC MD 1489

MD 1489 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SERN CO...SWRN KS

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1489
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0352 PM CDT SAT AUG 06 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO...SWRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 062052Z - 062245Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A THREAT OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND.

DISCUSSION...AT 2030Z...THUNDERSTORMS ARE SLOWLY INCREASING IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SERN CO. AHEAD OF THIS
ACTIVITY...LOW-LEVEL SELY FLOW HAS INCREASED IN RESPONSE TO A
DEEPENING SFC LOW NEAR PUB...AND MODERATE INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED
WHERE TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S F. AS THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP IN AND/OR MOVE INTO THE INSTABILITY AXIS...AN INCREASE IN
STORM ORGANIZATION WILL BE POSSIBLE...GIVEN RELATIVELY FAVORABLE
VEERING WIND PROFILES IN THE LOWEST 6KM. AS A RESULT...A COUPLE OF
SUPERCELLS MAY EVENTUALLY MATURE IN THIS AREA WITH A THREAT OF LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. HOWEVER...BACKED AND WEAK ANVIL-LEVEL FLOW
IS NOT IDEAL FOR SUPERCELL MAINTENANCE...SO THE LONGEVITY AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE SEVERE THREAT REMAINS UNCERTAIN. UPSCALE GROWTH IS
POSSIBLE TOWARD EVENING INTO PORTIONS OF SWRN KS...THOUGH THE
PRESENCE OF A RELATIVELY COOL/STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER IN THAT REGION
MAY TEND TO LIMIT THE OVERALL DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH ANY
DEVELOPING MCS. 

GIVEN THE LIMITING FACTORS MENTIONED ABOVE...WATCH ISSUANCE IS
CURRENTLY CONSIDERED UNLIKELY...BUT THIS MAY BE RECONSIDERED IF
MULTIPLE SUPERCELLS DEVELOP OR A CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CAPABLE OF
DAMAGING WIND APPEARS IMMINENT.

..DEAN/HART.. 08/06/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

LAT...LON   37300493 38340492 38630425 39250352 39390187 38360098
            37750124 37070142 37060224 37090315 37030401 37120473
            37300493 

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