SPC MD 1661

MD 1661 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SRN MO...NRN AR...SRN IL...WRN KY...SWRN INDIANA

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1661
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0101 PM CDT THU SEP 08 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN MO...NRN AR...SRN IL...WRN
KY...SWRN INDIANA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 081801Z - 082030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTMS CROSSING PORTIONS OF THE OZARKS REGION...LOWER OH
VALLEY...AND VICINITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUSTS. WW ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...A GRADUAL UPTICK IN CONVECTIVE INTENSITY IS ANTICIPATED
ALONG THE SRN FRINGES OF ONGOING SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM SRN MO TO CNTRL
IL...DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE ATTENDANT DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
ZONE AND ITS RELATED BAROCLINICITY...COUPLED WITH MLCAPE HAVING
INCREASED TO 1500-2500 J/KG...SHOULD ENCOURAGE THIS 
INTENSIFICATION -- PARTICULARLY AS LOCALIZED COLD-POOL AMALGAMATION
TAKES PLACE. PREFERENTIAL DEVELOPMENT INTO THE WARM/MOIST AIR MASS
CHARACTERIZED BY LOWER/MIDDLE 70S DEWPOINTS AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
BUOYANCY WILL SUPPORT AN EWD/SEWD SPREAD OF LOOSELY ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WATER LOADING AIDED BY PW
AROUND 2.00-2.25 INCHES COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED WET MICROBURSTS
CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DMGG WIND GUSTS...ESPECIALLY AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES STEEPEN. HOWEVER...ANY APPRECIABLE DEEP SHEAR WILL REMAIN
RELEGATED TO THE COOL SIDE OF AMALGAMATING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES/CLOUD-COVER-GRADIENT ZONES...AND SUSTENANCE/ORGANIZATION
OF MORE INTENSE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL. AS SUCH...THE
SVR RISK SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED/MARGINAL WHILE SPREADING EWD/SEWD.

..COHEN/HART.. 09/08/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...

LAT...LON   37898770 36798872 36069145 35769376 36009430 36549350
            37799046 38198887 37898770 

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