SPC MD 1662

MD 1662 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF OHIO...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN INDIANA...NORTHERN KENTUCKY

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1662
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0142 PM CDT THU SEP 08 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF OHIO...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
INDIANA...NORTHERN KENTUCKY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 081842Z - 082115Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTMS CROSSING PARTS OF THE MIDDLE/UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND
SRN GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING A FEW DMGG WIND GUSTS. WW ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...MOSAIC RADAR LOOPS IMPLY AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
INTENSITY ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL INDIANA...ALONG THE FRINGES OF A
SEMI-CONTINUOUS CLOUD SHIELD DRAPED ENE/WSW FROM LOWER MI TO CNTRL
MO. ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE ATTENDANT DIFFERENTIAL-HEATING
ZONE...SFC-LAYER DIABATIC HEATING BENEATH PATCHY/TRANSLUCENT...
HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD DEBRIS HAS ALLOWED SFC TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO
THE MIDDLE 80S TO AROUND 90F. LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
STEEPENING...RESULTING IN MLCAPE AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG...AIDED BY
SFC DEWPOINTS GENERALLY HOLDING IN THE LOWER 70S. 

AS SUCH...THE AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTION IN INDIANA WILL CONTINUE
SPREADING EWD WHILE POTENTIALLY GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING AMIDST
NEGLIGIBLE MLCINH. DEEPENING BOUNDARY-LAYER CUMULUS RESPONDING TO
SFC-LAYER HEATING ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION -- PER VIS IMAGERY --
MAY ALSO BE FOLLOWED BY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED MAGNITUDE OF BUOYANCY MAY FOSTER A FEW INTENSE
UPDRAFTS. FURTHERMORE...GIVEN PW AROUND 1.75-2.25 INCHES ENHANCING
WATER LOADING...ISOLATED WET MICROBURSTS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DMGG
WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR. CONVECTION AND THE ASSOCIATED ISOLATED SVR
RISK WILL SPREAD GENERALLY EWD THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

HOWEVER...POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND THE LACK OF STRONGER DEEP
ASCENT...SHOULD MARGINALIZE SVR POTENTIAL. ALSO...WITH ONLY MODEST
LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW /30 KT OR LESS/ IN PLACE -- BASED ON WILMINGTON
OHIO AND INDIANAPOLIS VWPS -- THE SVR RISK SHOULD BE LIMITED.

..COHEN/HART.. 09/08/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...

LAT...LON   38108747 38998727 39918606 40898276 41508095 41038059
            40328105 39468235 38498481 37998652 38108747 

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