Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0819 PM CDT Wed Apr 05 2017 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PART OF EASTERN TENNESSEE...FAR NORTHEAST ALABAMA...AND NORTHERN GEORGIA... ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN OHIO TO PARTS OF EASTERN ALABAMA TO THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA... ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM OHIO TO THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA PENINSULA SOUTH TO PART OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTH FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms with all severe hazards remain possible through this evening across from parts of southern Ohio through eastern Kentucky and Tennessee to much of eastern Alabama. A severe weather threat will continue this evening across coastal southern South Carolina into southern Georgia with all severe hazards. Two areas of strong to severe storms are expected to develop later tonight into early Thursday morning, with one being in Virginia to parts of the Carolinas, and the second across northern into central Florida. ...Synopsis... A synoptic midlevel trough will move east of the mid MS Valley this evening with a closed low forming overnight with this cyclone reaching IN/western OH and southern Lower MI by 12Z. Meanwhile, the southern extent of this trough will take on a negative tilt as a fast-moving shortwave trough tracks from the lower MS Valley to the southern Appalachians and then into the Carolinas around daybreak. Primary surface low will move into northern OH this forecast period. A cold front was analyzed early this evening extending from southwest OH through eastern TN and eastern AL and into the Gulf of Mexico off the western FL Panhandle. This front will advance east overnight and should extend from the OH/PA border to western or central VA to central NC, eastern SC into northern FL. ...Southern Mid-Atlantic States into parts of the Carolinas... Although surface dew points are currently in the upper 40s across northern and central VA to around 60 in central NC, strengthening south-southwesterly low-level winds across the Carolinas into VA should allow for moistening with poleward extent through tonight to early Thursday morning. This is expected to occur in the wake of the ongoing bands of storms now moving east off the coasts of the Carolinas and through southern GA. This moistening combined with midlevel lapse rates steepening with the approach of the negatively-tilting midlevel trough should result in mucape up to 1000 J/kg. Strong 500-mb 12-hr height falls of 100-180 meters tonight into VA and the Carolinas is expected to support new thunderstorm development across western/central VA into central NC and possibly northern SC. Strengthening deep-layer and low-level shear will support all severe hazards later tonight across this region. ...Upper OH/TN Valleys to the Southeast States... The overall severe weather threat will continue to diminish from north-south this evening from southern OH into eastern TN, as the instability diminishes from north-south and activity moves into a more stable environment located across WV to northeast TN. Meanwhile, the greatest potential for a continued severe-weather threat will all severe hazards appears to be located across east-central AL and northern GA where storms have remained more discrete, and closer to the stronger instability. There exists some uncertainty with destabilization later this evening into the overnight across northeast GA into western SC. However, an increase in forcing for ascent with approach of the lower MS Valley shortwave trough suggests storms may continue to develop with eastward extent, with all severe hazards possible as deep-layer and low-level shear strengthens. ...Northern and central FL... Models continue to suggest thunderstorms develop later tonight into early Thursday across parts of northern into central FL as 30-60 meter 12-hr 500-mb height falls occur across these parts of FL. Some increase in instability and strengthening deep-layer and low-level shear suggest storms could become severe. ..Peters.. 04/06/2017Read more
from SPC Forecast Products http://ift.tt/rxAC6Z
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