Mesoscale Discussion 0622 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1213 PM CDT Mon May 01 2017 Areas affected...Western NC...Western SC...East-Central GA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 011713Z - 011845Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two are possible through the afternoon. DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery reveals a line of thunderstorms from far western NC southward/southwestward into central GA. Thunderstorm cells within this line are generally moving northeastward at about 30 kt. Some modest intensification has been noted within this line over the past hour. Downstream thermodynamic environment is characterized by temperatures in the mid 70s (across western NC) to the upper 70s and low 80s (across east-central GA) and dewpoints in the upper 60s and low 70s areawide. Despite these warm and moist low-level conditions, warm mid-level temperatures (sampled well by the 12Z GSO sounding) will temper the overall instability with MLCAPE expected to stay around 500 J/kg. Kinematic profiles are a bit more favorable with the strong low-level flow (50 kt at 1 km and 60 kt at 3 km on recent GSP VAD data) contributing to 0-1 km shear greater than 35 kt ahead of the line. Continued theta-e advection ahead of the line, particularly along the southern end, combined with persistent and strong low-level flow will likely lead to some additional storm intensification over the next few hours. Limited instability and the moist low-level conditions suggest the primary severe threat would be damaging wind gusts. A tornado or two is also possible, particularly in areas where the surface winds remain backed. Convective trends will be monitored closely for possible watch issuance. ..Mosier/Grams.. 05/01/2017 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...FFC... LAT...LON 34448316 35628268 35418148 32958183 32708360 34448316Read more
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