Mesoscale Discussion 0623
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1241 PM CDT Mon May 01 2017
Areas affected...western New York through central Pennsylvania
Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely
Valid 011741Z - 011845Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent
SUMMARY...Severe storm threat with damaging wind and a few tornadoes
should continue to expand eastward into western NY and central PA
this afternoon. A tornado watch will likely be issued soon.
DISCUSSION...Organized line of storms with embedded mesovortices and
bowing segments from Lake Erie through extreme eastern OH is moving
east at around 40 kt. VWP data and special Pittsburg RAOB show very
favorable wind profiles for embedded supercells with large 0-1 km
hodographs. Latest visible imagery also show numerous cloud breaks
which will promote further destabilization of the boundary layer
with 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE this afternoon.
..Dial/Grams.. 05/01/2017
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...
LAT...LON 41077867 42167927 43067828 42867709 40577680 39797736
39757878 41077867
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