Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2020 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with very large hail and severe gusts are expected this evening for parts of southeastern Kansas, Oklahoma, and western Arkansas with severe gusts becoming the primary hazard into the overnight. ...Southern Great Plains into the Arklatex... Water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level anticyclone centered over the southern Rockies this evening. A belt of moderate northwesterly flow will continue to move southeast across the OK vicinity this evening. Early evening surface analysis and regional 00z observed sounding data indicate an extremely moist/unstable airmass across much of OK/western AR ahead several clusters of storms from the OK/TX Panhandles east into southeast KS. Large to very large hail will accompany the stronger cores through mid evening before additional storm mergers/outflow promote upscale growth into 1 or 2 severe-wind producing clusters moving southeast. It appears the greatest risk for severe gusts will encompass eastern OK this evening and possibly reach the Arklatex late tonight. Wind gusts 60-80 mph are possible with the more intense downdrafts this evening and this risk will eventually focus near bowing segments forecast to evolve later this evening. ...Mid MS Valley into the lower OH Valley... Water-vapor imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough over the Upper Midwest moving southeast towards the southwest Great Lakes. A moist/unstable airmass, constricted spatially by ongoing thunderstorms/outflow over the lower OH Valley and a drier airmass near the Appalachians, will support strong/severe thunderstorms this evening primarily capable of a risk for severe/damaging gusts. Large hail may occur with the more intense cores but further upscale growth will favor a couple of bands moving southeast this evening. Have enlarged the area of 5% wind probabilities farther east/southeast over parts of KY/TN for the possibility of at least a few strong thunderstorms persisting late tonight with the ongoing OH Valley thunderstorm cluster. ...Upstate NY and southern New England... A compact mid-level shortwave trough will continue to migrate northeast this evening across NY. The risk for a few strong, perhaps locally damaging gusts may persist through mid evening before diurnal stabilization leads to storms weakening and the risk diminishing. ..Smith.. 07/12/2020Read more
from SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_0100.html
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