SPC Jul 12, 2020 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0223 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2020

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms are possible on Tuesday from the central
Plains vicinity to the upper Mississippi Valley.

...Central Plains to Upper MS Valley vicinity...

An upper trough will persist from the northern Rockies to the Upper
Midwest on Tuesday. One embedded shortwave impulse will be pivoting
northeastward across the Upper Midwest during the morning/afternoon,
while another shortwave impulse ejects eastward across the central
Rockies into the central Plains during the evening/overnight hours.
This will maintain a belt of strong west/southwesterly flow across
the region in conjunction with a seasonally moist and unstable air
mass. Some convection will likely be ongoing across parts of the
region, most likely from parts of MN/WI, and possibly southwestward
toward eastern NE/KS. As a result, some uncertainty exists regarding
degree of severe potential across parts of the upper MS/mid-MO
Valley vicinity during the afternoon/evening.

Nevertheless, some severe potential should exist where the boundary
layer remains intact or is able to recover in the wake of, or ahead
of, morning convection in the vicinity of a surface boundary
extending northeast to southwest across the Marginal risk area.
Storms will likely develop along this boundary by late
afternoon/evening as a shortwave impulses ejects eastward from the
central Rockies into the central Plains. One or more storm clusters
capable of strong gusts, hail and possibly a tornado should develop
eastward across the central Plains vicinity during the
evening/overnight hours. Given uncertainty in how prior convection
will affect the boundary layer, will only introduce Marginal
probabilities at this time, but upgrades may be needed in subsequent
outlooks as mesoscale features become better resolved in the coming
day or two.

..Leitman.. 07/12/2020

Read more

from SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk_0730.html