Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2020 Valid 130100Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to continue this evening across parts of the central and southern High Plains. ...Central and southern High Plains... A weak disturbance moving across the central Rockies into the central High Plains this evening will likely continue to support thunderstorm development this evening into the overnight. Very steep low-level lapse rates, implied by very large surface temp-dewpoint spreads, will favor at least an isolated risk for severe gusts this evening. Adequate deep-layer shear for storm organization (sampled by the 7pm CDT North Platte, NE observed sounding) and steep 700-500mb lapse rates will favor large hail with the stronger cores mainly this evening. A transition to primarily a threat for severe gusts will gradually occur this evening into the overnight as activity over the High Plains moves/develops east into the Panhandles and central KS/northwest OK later tonight. ...Central Gulf Coast... A broken band of storms moving south towards the Gulf Coast will move offshore and likely weaken by the mid-late evening. However, a very moist/unstable airmass immediately near the coast will support a risk for wet microbursts capable of isolated wind damage through 9-10pm CDT before storms weaken and move offshore into the northern Gulf. ...TN into southern WV... A mid-level shortwave trough evident on water-vapor imagery this evening over the Upper OH Valley will continue to progress eastward across the central Appalachians overnight. A few strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible this evening before storms gradually weaken and a localized wind damage risk diminishes. ...Eastern MT/western ND... Low-level warm air advection is forecast to strengthen later this evening ahead of an eastward migrating shortwave trough over the southern Canadian Rockies/northern ID. Isolated thunderstorms will likely develop late this evening into tonight. Steep lapse rates sampled by the Rapid City observed sounding suggest the possibility for mainly hail/wind could accompany the stronger cores. Please reference MCD #1205 for short-term details. ..Smith.. 07/13/2020Read more
from SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_0100.html
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