SPC MD 1164

MD 1164 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FAR NORTHEASTERN CO...NE PANHANDLE

Mesoscale Discussion 1164
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0905 PM CDT Thu Jul 09 2020

Areas affected...far northeastern CO...NE Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 100205Z - 100300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...The threat for isolated large hail will probably continue
for the next 1-2 hours before nocturnal stabilization occurs this
evening and storms subsequently weaken.

DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic indicates several supercells across the
central High Plains from far northeastern CO northward into western
NE.  The 7pm CDT North Platte observed sounding showed a very steep
700-500mb lapse rate (approaching 9 degrees C/km) atop a capping
inversion associated with an elevated mixed layer.  Strong effective
shear (45-50 kt) has favored supercells and a straight-line
hodograph sampled by the North Platte sounding supported the notion
of splitting supercells this evening.  However, as boundary layer
cooling occurs this evening, increased convective inhibition and a
strengthening capping inversion will gradually favor weakening
storms.

..Smith/Hart.. 07/10/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   40820384 42180332 42410236 42160128 41210142 40590267
            40820384 

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from SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1164.html