Mesoscale Discussion 1468
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0721 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2020
Areas affected...Parts of southeast Colorado...southwest
Kansas...much of the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 120021Z - 120145Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Sparse damaging gusts and large hail may accompany the
stronger storms. The very isolated nature of the severe threat
precludes a WW issuance.
DISCUSSION...Isolated supercellular structures have developed across
portions of the southern High Plains over the past couple of hours.
These storms have been gradually intensifying in an ambient
thermodynamic environment characterized by steep low and mid-level
lapse rates (8-9 C/km in a deep layer), contributing up to 2000 J/kg
MLCAPE in some spots. A dry sub-cloud layer extending up to 500 mb
suggests that storms will remain high-based in nature, with
sufficient evaporative cooling to support stronger downdrafts and
associated gusty winds (some perhaps marginally severe). A couple
severe hail stones may also be observed with the stronger storms,
though melting/evaporation through the aforementioned deep sub-cloud
layer should limit hail size to some degree. Given the isolated
nature of the convection, and given the expected increasing in CINH
(which should result in a weakening trend after sunset), the severe
threat appears limited enough such that a WW issuance is not
anticipated.
..Squitieri/Thompson.. 08/12/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DDC...LUB...AMA...PUB...
LAT...LON 33460281 36460294 37580269 37760189 37710120 37430072
36910053 35380061 34250084 33270129 33140228 33460281
Read morefrom SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1468.html
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