SPC MD 1503

MD 1503 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO

Mesoscale Discussion 1503
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0622 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2020

Areas affected...Eastern New Mexico

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 152322Z - 160045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few strong to severe storms remain possible through the
evening.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms in eastern New Mexico is slowly
drifting southeastward with additional storms developing farther
east. MLCAPE is only around 500 to 1000 J/kg in this region with
effective shear at or below 20 kts per KFDX VWP. Given this somewhat
unfavorable environment, expect storm intensity to remain somewhat
muted through the evening. However, there is evidence a cold pool
has developed in Guadalupe county and it is moving toward an area
which is uncapped according to SPC mesoanalysis. Therefore, expect
additional storm development through the evening which should
continue to enforce/strengthen the cold pool. The aforementioned
lack of tropospheric flow should limit the overall intensity, but a
few strong to severe wind gusts is possible, especially with the
strongest storms (likely near the interaction with other outflow
boundaries currently across De Baca, Curry and Roosevelt counties.

..Bentley/Guyer.. 08/15/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON   35280444 35690401 35200296 34330291 33680307 33490364
            33670425 33990466 34520496 35280444 

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