SPC MD 1521

MD 1521 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA

Mesoscale Discussion 1521
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0648 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2020

Areas affected...Central and southern Arizona

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 172348Z - 180115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few storms may move off the higher terrain and produce a
few severe wind gusts this evening.

DISCUSSION...Storms have started to form along the Mogollon Rim and
are slowly drifting southeastward. These storms will be moving into
a very hot airmass with temperatures of 110 to 115 F and dewpoints
around 50F. This yields MLCAPE around 250 to 500 J/kg. The KIWA VWP
shows effective shear around 30 to 35 kts which should be plenty
sufficient for storm organization. However, the limited instability
will likely preclude a greater severe-weather threat. Nonetheless, a
few strong to severe storms are possible through the evening, and
given the very steep low to mid-level lapse rates and DCAPE values
over 2000 J/kg, a few severe wind gusts may be possible through the
evening, especially if any storms congeal into clusters and create
an enhanced cold pool.

..Bentley/Edwards.. 08/17/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

LAT...LON   31290942 32770957 33730997 34471095 34891187 34781261
            33081275 31771268 31281107 31290942 

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from SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1521.html