SPC MD 1556

MD 1556 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST ND/NORTHEAST SD INTO WEST-CENTRAL MN

Mesoscale Discussion 1556
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0117 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2020

Areas affected...extreme southeast ND/northeast SD into west-central
MN

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 240617Z - 240815Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Strong storms may continue into the early morning hours.
Strong gusts and hail are possible, but threat is expected to stay
mostly sub-severe.

DISCUSSION...An elevated cluster of storms continues to track
east/southeast near the ND/SD border into west-central MN late this
evening. Gusts between 39-45 kt have been measured with this
activity over the past hour. A modest southerly low level jet is
noted in VWP data from FSD. This, along with 25-35 kt effective
shear, may allow for continuation and loose organization of this
cluster over the next several hours as it moves east/southeast along
an instability gradient oriented west-to-east from the ND/SD border
into central MN. Steep midlevel lapse rates around 7.5-8.0 C/km also
were noted in 00z regional RAOBs, and could support marginally
severe hail, though storm mode should temper this threat.  Overall,
given the elevated nature of convection and rather modest low level
jet, the overall threat should remain limited and generally
sub-severe, with only sporadic strong gusts and hail possible into
the overnight hours.

..Leitman/Thompson.. 08/24/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...

LAT...LON   45739479 46079495 46359572 46549651 46519706 46249772
            45819818 45559824 45309810 45069740 44879660 44849554
            45089499 45469480 45739479 

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