SPC MD 1704

MD 1704 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FAR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA

Mesoscale Discussion 1704
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1127 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2020

Areas affected...far eastern North Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 180427Z - 180600Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated small supercells cannot be ruled out mainly
across far eastern North Carolina and toward the Outer Banks, over
the next 1-2 hours. Overall trends are expected to remain down
regarding severe potential.

DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows 75+ F dewpoints across
Wilmington NC to the Outer Banks, contributing to around 1500 J/kg
MLCAPE. Meanwhile, effective SRH remains at around 200 m2/s2, with
most of it concentrated in the lowest 1km.

Earlier stratiform precipitation has dissipated, with scattered
showers and thunderstorms. A few small but notable cells persist,
from Pamlico to Hyde County, with weak cyclonic shear at times.

As the midlevel speed max continues northeastward and offshore,
low-level winds just off the surface will veer, reducing low-level
shear. However, a low-end threat of a few small supercells may
persist for an hour or two toward the Outer Banks, where weak
warm/moist advection persists. Any tornado threat is expected to be
brief/weak, and a watch is unlikely.

..Jewell/Thompson.. 09/18/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...

LAT...LON   34857623 34847703 35107716 35467702 36067650 36247600
            36167560 35687533 35277533 35137555 34857623 

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