DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1248 AM CDT SUN JUN 05 2016 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS PARTS OF PA/NJ TO NC... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PARTS OF NY TO GA... ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS PARTS OF EASTERN STATES... ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SOUTHERN ROCKIES... ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS WI AND NORTHEAST MN... ...SUMMARY... SEVERAL STORM CLUSTERS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM NEW YORK TO GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS FROM STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES TO NORTH CAROLINA. ...SYNOPSIS... A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT EAST AND REACH WEST QUEBEC BY EARLY MON...AS AN UPSTREAM IMPULSE DIGS ACROSS THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. A SURFACE CYCLONE WILL DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TOWARDS JAMES BAY. IN THE SOUTHWEST...A MID-LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD DAMPEN. ...NEW YORK TO GEORGIA... WILL MAINTAIN ENHANCED RISK THIS OUTLOOK WITH OVERALL SCENARIO REMAINING PREDICATED ON POCKETS OF AMPLE INSOLATION AMID POOR MID/UPPER-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL BE PERVASIVE FROM CENTRAL NEW YORK ON SOUTH. THIS SHOULD YIELD A MARGINALLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WHERE ROBUST DIABATIC HEATING OCCURS...MOST LIKELY SOUTH OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE. AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES THE NORTHERN APPALACHIANS DURING THE AFTERNOON...A BROAD BELT OF MODERATE TO STRONG 700-500 MB WEST-SOUTHWESTERLIES WILL OVERSPREAD THE WARM SECTOR...YIELDING 30-45 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR. STORMS SHOULD INITIATE MIDDAY ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND SPREAD EAST OVER THE PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN INTO THE EVENING. VEERED LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD LIMIT HODOGRAPH CURVATURE...BUT GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR...ACTIVITY SHOULD EVOLVE INTO MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND ONE OR MORE QLCS/S. THIS SUGGESTS THAT DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD...BUT A BRIEF TORNADO AND/OR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN TRANSIENT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES GIVEN THE DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. ...SOUTHERN ROCKIES... STRONG DIABATIC HEATING WITH RECYCLED BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE /CHARACTERIZED BY MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S SURFACE DEW POINTS/ SHOULD RESULT IN WEAK BUOYANCY DEVELOPING AT PEAK HEATING. AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE WANES...A BELT OF MODEST NORTH/NORTHWESTERLIES SHOULD OVERSPREAD THIS CORRIDOR OF WEAK BUOYANCY. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD FORM OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND VICINITY. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/WIND MAY OCCUR WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS. ...NORTHEAST MN TO WI... A BELT OF STRONG MID-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLIES WILL BE PREVALENT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...YIELDING ELONGATED STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS THIS AFTERNOON. BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AND BUOYANCY MAY REMAIN MEAGER. HOWEVER...STEEPENING TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES AMID MID-LEVEL DCVA SHOULD YIELD WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION. SETUP MAY SUPPORT FAST-MOVING CELLS WITH SPORADIC INSTANCES OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. ..GRAMS/LEITMAN.. 06/05/2016Read more
from SPC Forecast Products http://ift.tt/s7Jkvo
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