DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1238 AM CDT SUN JUN 05 2016 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SRN IND INTO OH AND NRN KY... ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS NRN FL INTO SRN GA... ...SUMMARY... A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. ISOLATED STRONG STORMS MAY ALSO OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK TROPICAL DISTURBANCE. ...SYNOPSIS... A LARGE UPPER LOW WILL EXIST OVER ERN CANADA WITH BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT FROM THE NRN PLAINS SEWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND INTO THE NERN STATES. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL EXIST JUST N OF THE OH RIVER DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A WIND SHIFT AND ENHANCEMENT OF LIFT AIDING IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. TO THE S...A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO AFFECT THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO AND ACROSS THE SERN STATES. AMPLE MOISTURE AND INCREASING WIND FIELDS WITH THIS SYSTEM MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED SVR STORMS. ...NRN KY...INDIANA...OHIO... STRONG HEATING WILL LEAD TO WEAK INSTABILITY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S F ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT. STRONG WLY WIND FIELDS WILL EASILY MIX TO THE SURFACE AND RESULT IN STRONG WINDS POSSIBLY ENHANCED BY THUNDERSTORM DOWNDRAFTS AND RESULTING IN MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS. THIS MARGINAL RISK AREA MAY EVENTUALLY BE EXPANDED WWD OR EWD ALONG THE COLD FRONT DEPENDING ON WHERE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. ...MUCH OF NRN FL INTO SRN GA... A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO AFFECT THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO AND MAY AFFECT PARTS OF NRN FL AND SRN GA LATE MONDAY. TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO A FEW HUNDRED J/KG MUCAPE AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR MAY FAVOR ROTATING CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS EMBEDDED WITHIN LINES OR CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE PREDICTABILITY IS CURRENTLY LOW FOR THIS SCENARIO...POTENTIALLY STRONG LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS WARRANT A MARGINAL RISK FOR A BRIEF/ISOLATED TORNADO OR STRONG WIND GUST. ..JEWELL.. 06/05/2016Read more
from SPC Forecast Products http://ift.tt/GB0aDL
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