SPC MD 1351

MD 1351 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN GREAT LAKES

Mesoscale Discussion 1351
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1236 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2020

Areas affected...Eastern Great Lakes

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 291736Z - 291900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A couple storms will pose a risk for isolated damaging
wind gusts this afternoon. A weather watch will likely not be
needed.

DISCUSSION...A broad upper low over southern Canada is rotating
rotating through the Great Lakes supporting scattered shower and
thunderstorm development near the international border. A plume of
temperatures and dewpoints in the 80s and mid 60s F respectively are
contributing to 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE despite relatively weak
mid-level lapse rates. Recently, radar and satellite data have shown
storms starting to intensify across portions of southwestern New
York into portions of northeastern Ohio. 30-35 kt of effective shear
should support a few multi-cell clusters capable of damaging wind
gusts given steep low-level lapse rates around 8 C/km. Storm
coverage is expected to remain relatively low given the shallow
nature of surface moisture and weak destabilization. Storms moving
east are expected to weaken as they interact with drier air from a
previous frontal passage towards eastern New York and Pennsylvania.
Conditions will be monitored, though uncertainty in severity and
coverage suggests a weather watch is unlikely.

..Lyons/Goss.. 07/29/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

LAT...LON   42108220 42758017 43477895 43727774 44247600 44017545
            43307563 42397648 41677768 41207861 41027915 40978033
            41018119 41208202 41698258 42108220 

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from SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1351.html